๐ 10-15 ยท the morning fall of โ4.53% and what came after
On 10-15 between 10:20 and 10:28 China time, ETH fell from about 2,417 to 2,313.39 on the demo price feed. The observatory marked it as a whale fall (WF) of โ4.53%, timed 10:22. It was the biggest single move of the day.
When and how far
The morning high was 2,428.00 at 09:02. At 10:20 the price was still 2,416.85 and open interest had risen 0.13% in the hour. Eight minutes later the low was 2,313.39 (10:28). By 10:30 the price was back at 2,344.34; the hour change was โ2.85%.
The fuel
Our short fuel gauge counts open interest that is added while the price goes down (new shorts) and takes off what is closed while the price goes up. It was already high before the fall: between 02:00 and 09:30 it filled to 3โ4% of open interest, with a peak of 93,056 ETH at 09:25 (3.85 times the normal level).
During the fall itself the gauge did not fill. It went down from about 4.0% to 3.3%, because open interest fell with the price (โ1.50% in the hour to 10:30, โ2.41% by 11:00). A falling price with falling open interest means positions closing, not new shorts.
Was there a fake move?
Not before the fall. Right after it the price bounced: a squeeze of +1.34% was marked at the same 10:22, then a second fall of โ2.49% and a squeeze of +2.42% at 11:22, a shake-out of โ1.16% at 11:31, a squeeze of +1.69% at 12:29 and another fall of โ1.76% at 13:30.
Who pushed
Our who-pushed tool is not built yet, so here are only the recorded numbers. In the hour to 10:30, long liquidations were 101.28 million dollars and short liquidations 0.27 million. Large trades on the sell side were 556.6 million against 233.7 million on the buy side. Retail accounts were 76.97% long. Forced selling of longs is what the records show; who started it is not measured.
What the models did
| Time | Model | Action | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:22 | ๐ค Scenario | closed short | 2,383.38 | +$97.95 |
| 10:22 | ๐งฌ Hybrid | closed short | 2,383.38 | +$26.75 |
| 11:40 โ 12:32 | ๐งฌ Hybrid | long in โ out | 2,357.82 โ 2,383.36 | +$53.05 |
| 12:37 | ๐ฆ Butterfly | closed short (trail stop) | 2,376.88 | +$213.25 |
| 12:48 โ 14:48 | ๐งฌ Hybrid | long in โ out | 2,383.89 โ 2,354.73 | โ$48.60 |
| 13:58 โ 15:38 | ๐ค Scenario | long in โ half โ out | 2,349.43 โ 2,371.47 | +$18.15, +$23.00 |
The Hawk stage model did not exist yet on 10-15 (it started on 10-16).
What went right, what went wrong
Right: the two shorts that were already open (Scenario and Hybrid) took their profit in the fall, and the trend model's short closed on its trailing stop with +$213.25.
Wrong: Hybrid went long again at 2,383.89 after the first bounce and was closed at 2,354.73 for โ$48.60 when the second fall came. The lesson we keep: after a fall like this the market bounced and fell three more times in three hours; the first bounce was not the end.
All numbers come from the demo ledgers, the event records and the price feed. This is a record, not advice.