🌋 10-15 night · a fake drop, then squeezes of +2.55% and +3.49%
On the night of 10-15 ETH dipped twice, then rose from 2,323.00 to a high of 2,448.97 in about two hours. The observatory marked a fall of −1.78% at 21:31, then squeezes of +2.55% at 22:04 and +3.49% at 23:04 (China time, demo price feed).
When and how far
At 21:00 the price was 2,348.78. A first fall of −1.61% was marked at 20:31 and a squeeze of +1.36% at 20:39. The second fall (21:31, −1.78%) set the night low of 2,323.00 at 21:55. From there: +2.55% to 2,382.30 (22:04), +3.49% to 2,429.60 (23:04) and the high of 2,448.97 at 23:41.
The fuel
The short fuel gauge peaked at 55,049 ETH at 20:10 (2.88% of open interest, 2.28 times the normal level). At 21:30 it was 40,362 ETH (1.67 times). Between 21:30 and 23:30 it burned 59,619 ETH and filled only 5,468, so it went to zero: the shorts that had piled up were the ones being closed on the way up.
Our data collector has a gap from about 20:30 to 22:30, so the middle of the move is missing in the gauge.
Was the drop fake?
Looking back, yes: the 21:31 fall did not continue. Within 33 minutes the first squeeze was marked. Our early-warning rule for a fake drop needs the fuel at two times normal or more; at 21:31 it was 1.67 times, so the rule would not have fired. We keep the threshold at two times and will only change it by comparing 1.5, 2 and 3 times on past data.
Who pushed
The who-pushed tool is not built yet; these are the recorded numbers. At 21:30 the futures order flow of the hour was −8.23% (net selling) and 75.56% of retail accounts were long. By 23:00 the hour's short liquidations were 5.05 million dollars and spot order flow was +22.3% (net buying); at 23:30 short liquidations were 5.70 million and large buys 196.7 million against 154.4 million of large sells. One reading that fits the records: shorts were built first, the price was pushed down, and the squeeze came when those shorts were closed.
What the models did
| Time | Model | Action | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:03 → 22:42 | 🤖 Scenario | long in → out | 2,359.47 → 2,387.94 | +$48.05 |
| 21:32 → 22:11 | 🧬 Hybrid | short in → out | 2,351.08 → 2,373.11 | −$45.90 |
| 23:39 → 01:39 | 🧬 Hybrid | short in → out | 2,437.99 → 2,445.51 | −$12.30 |
| 00:09 → 00:32 | 🤖 Scenario | short in → half → out | 2,444.90 → 2,422.78 | +$17.60, +$22.15 |
The trend model (Butterfly) held no position that night. Hawk stage did not exist yet.
What went right, what went wrong
Right: Scenario kept its long through the fake drop and closed it after the first squeeze for +$48.05; after the top it went short and took +$17.60 and +$22.15.
Wrong: Hybrid sold the fake drop at 2,351.08, one minute after it was marked, and lost $45.90; it shorted again near the top and lost $12.30. The lesson: a drop with low fuel and many retail longs was a trap here, not the start of a fall.
All numbers come from the demo ledgers, the event records and the price feed. This is a record, not advice.