📅 Journal 2026-10-20 · ETH +1.97% · 3 falls · 3 squeezes

This is the journal of 2026-10-20 (China time) on the Coin Challenge demo account. ETH opened the day at 2,392.98 and closed at 2,440.13 (+1.97%). The high was 2,471.45 at 22:55 and the low 2,377.83 at 09:05.

The day in short

On 2026-10-20 (China time), ETH opened at 2,392.98 and closed at 2,440.13, a change of +1.97%. The low was 2,377.83 at 09:05. The high was 2,471.45 at 22:55. The day started quietly, dipped in the morning, and made most of its gains late in the evening.

This is a demo account, so no real money moved. It is a practice run that records what the trading models and the AI analyst, HAWK, would have done.

The day's total profit or loss across all models was not measured. Only the individual results listed below were recorded.

How the big moves unfolded

The journal flags sudden jumps and drops with "whale marks". That is a label for a move big enough to suggest large players are active. A "fall" is a sharp drop. A "squeeze" is a sharp jump, often when traders betting on a drop are forced to buy back. A "shake-out" is a smaller wobble.

The day began with a fall at 00:00 of -1.43% at a price of 2,386.18. The following hour then traded between 2,396.19 and 2,403.31. Several small shake-outs followed through the early morning, such as +0.62% at 02:07 and +0.72% at 06:19. None of them changed the picture much.

The morning low arrived around 09:09. A fall of -1.37% was marked at 2,370.74, and a shake-out of +0.82% at 2,390.25 was marked at the same time. The day's recorded low is 2,377.83 at 09:05. The mark price sits below that low, and the facts do not explain the gap. A squeeze of +1.30% at 2,401.48 followed at 09:46.

The evening was the main event. A squeeze of +3.79% was marked at 21:59 at 2,473.20, and the next hour ranged from 2,422.57 to 2,471.45. Another squeeze, +2.75% at 2,474.16, came at 22:59. Then a fall of -2.07% at 2,426.45 hit at 23:12. The next hour stayed between 2,430.49 and 2,440.13, and the day closed at 2,440.13.

How each model handled it

A "short" is a bet that the price will fall. If the price rises instead, the short loses money. That matters, because ETH rose sharply in the evening.

Scenario had a short recorded at 05:18 at a price of 2,414.79. The record shows a question mark where the status should be, and no result was given. Its outcome was not measured.

Butterfly had several entries. Its short closed at 12:10 and another closed at 22:08, and each is listed with a price of 0.00 and a result of +$0.00. A price of 0.00 is not a real ETH price, so I treat these as incomplete records and not as true results. Butterfly also opened a short at 18:01 at 2,379.65. It opened another at 23:04 at 2,458.82, which closed at 23:39, again listed with price 0.00 and +$0.00. Its real profit or loss was not measured.

Hybrid opened a short at 16:03 at 2,384.78. Another Hybrid short appears at 22:07 at 2,435.72, with a question mark for its status. That one closed at 22:14 at 2,456.34 with a result of −$85.25. This was the only clearly recorded loss of the day. It came as the evening squeeze pushed the price up.

What HAWK read

HAWK is the AI analyst. It has not placed orders since 2026-10-16, when its stage tracking started, so it only reads the market. Its readings are listed from 00:13 to 13:03, and every one of them said "wait". Readings after 13:03 were not measured.

Its down and up scores stayed close together for most of the morning. At 00:13 it showed down 33% and up 30% with ETH at 2,400.00. By 05:38 the up score had grown to 39%, against down 29%, with ETH at 2,401.98. That was the most upward-leaning reading listed.

The lean reversed as the price slipped. At 10:08 HAWK showed down 36% and up 29% with ETH at 2,389.13. The most downward-leaning reading came at 13:03, with down 38% and up 30% at 2,410.21. Even then, the action stayed "wait".

HAWK's stage labels followed the price. REBOUND was marked at 00:13, BASE at 04:20, and REBOUND again at 09:14. SQUEEZE appeared at 09:46 and again at 21:59. The day's last label was REBOUND at 23:18. HAWK readings were not recorded for the evening, so we cannot say what HAWK read during the biggest move.

One thing learned

A sharp jump can arrive quickly and can hurt a short position. Hybrid's short at 22:07 at 2,435.72 closed at 2,456.34 for −$85.25, after the 21:59 squeeze had already begun.

The whale marks also show that big moves rarely run in a straight line. After the squeeze at 22:59, a fall of -2.07% came at 23:12. Small shake-outs then went up and down, like +0.70% at 23:42 and -0.78% at 23:45. A rise can be followed by a pullback within a short time.

There is also a lesson about data. Several Butterfly records show a price of 0.00. A record like that should be read with care, because it may mean the number was not captured and not that nothing happened.

One thing to watch next

The first thing to watch is whether the trade records show real closing prices and results. Without them, the models' results for 2026-10-20 cannot be fully judged.

The second is whether HAWK's readings continue through the whole day. Today's list stops at 13:03, so the evening is a blank. HAWK also still does not place orders. Its "wait" readings are a view of the market, not a trade.

Finally, it is worth seeing how ETH behaves around the close of 2,440.13 and the high of 2,471.45. No forecast is made here. These are only the prices from this day's record.

The numbers

The day in stages

The stage reader moved through 15 stages: 00:13 REBOUND → 02:04 normal → 04:20 BASE → 06:13 normal → 06:55 normal → 07:11 normal → 07:55 normal → 09:14 REBOUND → 09:46 SQUEEZE → 14:22 normal → 15:58 normal → 16:47 normal → 20:54 normal → 21:59 SQUEEZE.

Events

The observatory marked 3 falls, 3 squeezes and 12 shake-outs. The biggest was a squeeze of +3.79% at 21:59.

What the models did

Best single trade: 🦋 Butterfly, short closed at 12:10, +$0.00. Worst: 🧬 Hybrid, short closed at 22:14, −$85.25.

New positions: 16:03 🧬 Hybrid short @2,384.78, 18:01 🦋 Butterfly short @2,379.65, 23:04 🦋 Butterfly short @2,458.82.

What HAWK read

HAWK, our AI analyst, gave 105 readings. It does not place orders. Its scale for a fall averaged 34% (range 29–38%) and for a rise 32% (range 27–39%). It said wait 105 times.

At its first reading (00:13, ETH 2,400.00) the scale was down 33% / up 30%; at its last (23:48, ETH 2,429.85) down 34% / up 30%. Between them ETH moved +1.24%.

One thing learned

The worst trade was 🧬 Hybrid at 22:14 (−$85.25). It is the one to study tomorrow: what the whale band showed when it was opened.

One thing to watch next

The day closed at 2,440.13. Watch whether the next day breaks the high of 2,471.45 or the low of 2,377.83.

All numbers come from the demo ledgers, the event records and the price feed. This is a record, not advice.